<![CDATA[Lukasz A. Drozd - BLOG]]>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 06:57:54 -0700Weebly<![CDATA[On the Consequences of the May Rush to Reopen the Economy]]>Mon, 24 Aug 2020 18:29:22 GMThttps://www.lukasz-drozd.com/blog/the-consequences-of-the-may-rush-to-reopen-the-economy-amid-covid-19-crisisIn early May, several states jumped the gun to roll back restrictions put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 to spur economic recovery. The virus was not yet controlled and the restrictions were loosened without much regard to how reopening may affect the pandemic. Pennsylvania and much of the East Coast did not follow this approach and chose the path of being data-dependent and gradual so that the spread of the virus is controlled.  (A detailed account of the rush to reopen across a number of states can be found here: https://wapo.st/3by73JL. The summary of Pennsylvania's approach can be found here: www.governor.pa.gov/process-to-reopen-pennsylvania/.)

I was curious to see how the data-dependent strategy pursued by the Pennsylvania's governor Tom Wolf compares to states that rushed to reopen. The evidence is clear: The states that rushed to reopen or failed to control the spread of the virus suffered a major outbreak of COVID-19 and  gained little in terms of the economy. The myth of there being any trade-off between having the economy and controlling the virus is clearly debunked by data. The economic impact of COVID-19 is measured by the percent change in the number of small businesses open relative to Jan.  The data for this post come from tracktherecovery.org by  opportunityinsights.org. ​(pdf)
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